J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-09-02
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02 10:00 | Avispa Fukuoka | Urawa Reds | 37.2% | 29.4% | 33.4% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Cerezo Osaka | Kashiwa Reysol | 35.1% | 24.7% | 40.2% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Machida | Kawasaki Frontale | 53.3% | 21.5% | 25.2% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Shimizu S-Pulse | FC Tokyo | 37.4% | 27.0% | 35.6% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Chiba | Okayama | 24.1% | 27.0% | 48.9% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | V-Varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka | 34.3% | 23.0% | 42.7% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Nagoya Grampus | 56.4% | 24.2% | 19.5% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Mito | Kashima Antlers | 29.3% | 24.4% | 46.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Kyoto | 45.1% | 23.7% | 31.2% | not yet played |
| Sep 02 10:00 | Verdy | Vissel Kobe | 24.7% | 30.1% | 45.2% | not yet played |
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.